My Photo
Name:
Location: Washington DC

Saturday, September 05, 2015

The Fed Rate Hikes-Plural!

Seven years after the Great Recession, deflation, not inflation, is the most consequential threat to the economy, with the idiocracy in Washington, D.C. placing second in the list of potential hazards to the precarious recovery.
 Deflation?
 Precious and industrial metals have hit rock bottom; and oil-- who would ever have thought that we'd  one day feel sorry for the JR Ewings of the world?    Food prices have climbed but the prices of most everything else are flat to down. Merchants of consumer goods  worry about the elasticity of their products.
   Although the employment picture has radically improved, we've not seen  employers outside of tech land chasing employees with ever higher wages.  Worried about a decline  in demand and consequently in profits in coming quarters due  to slowdowns in Europe and China , mid-sized and large- cap companies are curtailing hiring, training, and investment in equipment.
  But the Fed will raise rates, nevertheless. There's this central banking  thing about getting ahead of the potential drunks at a party and  draining the punch bowl of intoxicating low rates.  Although the rates have not yet triggered general inflation, they have distorted the economy in other wicked ways.  Equity and debt  prices are elevated because stock and bond trading in the only game in town that offers a decent return.  Low rates have allowed marginal companies to compete with leaner and meaner organizations and thus made the employment picture appear rosier than it is, Remember the tech bubble!
    For this reads  December. They will be non-hike hikes.  They will minimally strengthen the dollar at the outset, which will attract a flood of foreign hot money, which will have the effect of bring down the rates the Fed had just lifted.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home