Guaging Bush's Prospects

Bush's decline in the polls at this stage portend nothing. Dukakis had a lead at this point in his campaign, if my memory is accurate. Kerry has significant drag to overcome. First, no candidate in memory has ever won over voters by promising to raise taxes, including Bill Clinton. Second, Kerry is still an unknown candidate. He hardly makes prime time. He is dull and pendantic and evasive on the issues. He might better succeed by campaigning with a bag over his head. Also, he is on the wrong side in the culture wars.
Bush, however, has the mendacity problem. Amercians's do not countenace snake-oil salesmen for long. His administration mislead us on WMD, the mind-set of the Iraqi people, and the conduct of the war (and the cost of Medicare). Further revelations likely will assert a cover-up up by military brass of their roles in the Iraqi prison scandal(Gitmo and other facilities are likely to have been the scene of similar abuses).
One telling poll number would be the public's perception of Bush's honesty. Another would assess damage to his moral authority. For example, how can one rally behind Bush in oppistion to say homosexual marriage when his Pentagon is forcing Iraqi prisoners to engage in homo-sexual acts?
The economy does not look like it will be a factor in this election. I agree with the pundits that it will be a Bush referendum, not a contest between equals. The rise in gay marriage will force many cultural warriors to take Bush's side despite his flaws. This one event may rescue Bush.
Security is intense today around the White House, with the Secret Serbice stopping trucks on nearby streets and examining their manefests. In the recent past, security has been more discrete. Italy's PM is in town.
Question of the week: Will Bush fire anyone for screw-ups in Iraq? He seems to fire only those whom he finds disagreeable in personality, like Lindsey and O'Neill. Is he a manager who prefers "yes men" to independent thinkers?